Key Results & Achievements

Prof. Eduardo Massad, Universidade de São Paulo

Fully parameterised vector control strategy

Planning for this taskwas launched and LSHTM began work alongside partner IP to establish vector competency outputs.

Link data on human population, mobility patterns, meteorological records and vector distributions

Work progressed well on this task, and a manuscript entered the final stages of production. The group predicted that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States, Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated with the reported peak in incidence.

Brazilian Butanan Phase III Trial

Moving forward, the result of the Brazilian Butanan Phase III Trial will provide the relevant information for the development of models to help policy makers and vaccine developers in the future. The geographic spread of the virus will be modeled with gravity-diffusion models that will help predict the spread of Zika inside and outside Latin America. The inclusion of human-to-human Zika transmission in future models will help to understand and predict the introduction of Zika into mosquito-free countries. Finally, the inclusion of climatic factors into future models will contribute to the understanding and prediction of the risk of Zika in areas not yet affected.

Further publications produced during period 2 were:

  • Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis.
    O’Reilly KM et el., BMC medicine (2018 Dec;16(1):180)
  • Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use.
    Massad E, et al., Epidemiol Infect. (doi: 10.1017/S0950268819000712)

Participating Organisations

Group leader: Prof. Eduardo Massad, Universidade de São Paulo

  • Umeå University
  • London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • University of Oxford