“We are going to estimate the key parameters related to the intensity of transmission of Zika. From this we can calculate risks, test alternate control strategies and make predictions about what will happen if we introduce one of the possible control strategies.”

Prof. Eduardo Massad, Universidade de São Paulo

Overall Objective

Mathematical models will be developed to inform public health policies on how best to mitigate the Zika outbreak in Latin America and beyond through approaches such as vaccination and vector control. Mathematical models on transmission dynamics will help to prepare for the impact of Zika on healthcare systems.

Specific Objectives

  • Model the extent and estimate DALY of congenital Zika syndrome in Latin America (based on findings of the MERG: Unravelling Congenital Zika Syndrome working group and of the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC) and Disease Burden and Risk Assessment group,
  • Estimate the extent of neurological complications of Zika virus infections and their impact on healthcare utilisation (based on findings of the NEURO-ZIKA: Neurological Manifestations of Zika group),
  • Model the role of non-vector transmission in Zika virus dynamics (based on the evolving literature and findings of researchers in the Non-vector Transmission of ZIKV group),
  • Estimate vector parameters (based on findings from the Viral Fitness group),
  • Model vector control strategies (Wolbachia/genetically modified mosquitoes),
  • Inform optimal control bundles to mitigate future outbreaks, in particular in Latin American cities,
  • Model and predict burden of disease in Latin America to inform vaccine developers (based on results of the Disease Burden and Risk Assessment group).

Participating Organisations

Group leader: Prof. Eduardo Massad, Universidade de São Paulo

  • Umeå University
  • London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • University of Oxford